NFL Playoff Statistical Analysis

Here is a list of NFL playoff trends that have proven successful to follow or fade in recent years.

2009-01-15

Here is a list of NFL playoff trends that have proven successful to follow or fade in recent years. All of these angles reflect the teams’ current statistics, including the playoff games of ’09. The records for the ’09 playoffs of each angle are also given along with the qualifying teams for this week’s games.

Keep in mind that these are purely raw stat based angles and don’t take into account any other betting scenarios, such as line range, situational factors, or experience. Using various stats, here are 18 different playoff betting trends that have produced either better than 55% or worse than 45% results.

Scoring
• Home teams scoring 26.0 PPG or more are just 14-21 ATS (40%)
Record in ’09: 2-1 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: AGAINST Arizona
• Home teams allowing less than 17 PPG are 22-17 ATS (56.4%)
Record in ’09: 1-1 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Pittsburgh
• Road teams allowing less than 17 PPG are 19-11 ATS (63.3%)
Record in ’09: 2-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore
• Home teams outscoring their opponents by less than 5.0 PPG on the season are 8-14 ATS (36.4%)
Record in ’09: 1-2 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: AGAINST Arizona

Rushing Stats
• Teams that run for more yards per attempt on the season and are an underdog are 25-19 ATS (56.8%)
Record in ’09: 1-3 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore
• Home teams that average 106 RYPG or less are 15-5 ATS (75.0%)
Record in ’09: 2-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Arizona, Pittsburgh
• Road teams that average 136 RYPG or more are 13-10 ATS (56.5%)
Record in ’09: 2-1 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore
• Teams that allow fewer rushing yards per attempt on the season are 52-38 ATS (57.8%).
Record in ’09: 7-1 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Pittsburgh, Philadelphia
• Road teams that allow 3.90 YPR or fewer are 27-11 ATS (71.1%)
Record in ’09: 3-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore, Philadelphia
• Road teams that allow fewer than 100.0 RYPG are 25-14 ATS (64.1%)
Record in ’09: 4-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore, Philadelphia

Passing Stats
• Teams that pass for more yards per attempt on the season and are an underdog are 20-15 ATS (57.1%)
Record in ’09: 2-3 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Arizona
• Home teams that gain more than 7.40 yards per pass attempt or more on the season are just 9-17 ATS (34.6%)
Record in ’09: 2-2 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: AGAINST Arizona
• Teams that pass for more yards per game on the season and are an underdog are 22-16 ATS (57.9%)
Record in ’09: 3-2 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Arizona
• Home teams that allow 192.0 PYPG or fewer are 11-16 ATS (40.7%)
Record in ’09: 1-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: AGAINST Pittsburgh

Yards Per Play Stats
• Road teams that yield 4.90 yards per play or fewer on defense are 17-5 ATS (77.2%)
Record in ’09: 4-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore, Philadelphia
• Home teams outgaining their opponents by 1.00 or more yards per play are just 2-9 ATS (18.2%)
Record in ’09: 1-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: AGAINST Pittsburgh
• Road teams outgaining their opponents by 0.25 or more yards per play on the season are 15-7 ATS (68.2%)
Record in ’09: 5-2 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore, Philadelphia

Turnover Stats
• Road teams that enjoyed a turnover differential of more than +1.00 per game on the season are 8-2 ATS (80%)
Record in ’09: 0-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore

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