NFL: ARIZONA at SAN FRANCISCO (8:35 PM ET, ESPN)

Arizona makes its second straight primetime appearance when it travels to San Francisco to wrap up the Week 14 slate on Monday night football. The Cardinals advanced to 8-4 after the win over the Vikings, and managed to boost their divisional lead over th

2009-12-14

Arizona makes its second straight primetime appearance when it travels to San Francisco to wrap up the Week 14 slate on Monday night football. The Cardinals advanced to 8-4 after the win over the Vikings, and managed to boost their divisional lead over the 49ers and Seahawks to three games with four to go. Arizona can clinch the NFC West by simply winning this game. They are about a field-goal favorite at Sportsbook.com and nearly 90% of bettors have chosen to play that side of the action at last check.

The 49ers will be looking to turn the tide of recent action between these teams, as the series has seen the road team win eight straight times ATS. San Francisco has played well at home in ’09, with a 4-2 SU & ATS mark, and is now 6-2-1 ATS as hosts under Mike Singletary. Both teams are 3-1 in divisional play this year, but San Francisco boasts the 20-16 Week 1 head-to-head win.

With games against Detroit and St. Louis at the back end of their schedule, the prospect of the Niners finishing .500 or better for the first time in seven seasons looms as a possibility. But hopes of their first playoff appearance since 2002 basically went out the window last week after a loss in Seattle dropped them to 5-7.

San Francisco’s inability to pull out close games—five of its losses are by a combined 19 points—and string more than two wins together all season will go down as the biggest reason its lockers will be empty come the first week of January. It suffered four straight defeats following a promising 3-1 start and has alternated wins and losses over the past four weeks.

A lot of football remains, however, especially if you’re Alex Smith. The first-overall pick of the 2005 draft has four more games to convince the front office and Mike Singletary’s coaching staff he’s their quarterback for next season and beyond. How well Smith plays against Arizona under the Monday Night Football spotlight could go a long way in determining his fate.

Elevated to starter midway through Week 7, Smith has played relatively well after missing all of last season with an injury and making just seven starts in 2007. He’s thrown at least two touchdown passes in five outings—something he didn’t do at all in ’07 and accomplished just three times while starting all 16 games in ’06. Part of his success can be traced to a supporting cast that includes rookie first-round wideout Michael Crabtree (32 catches, 406 yards, one touchdown in seven games) and former first-round tight end Vernon Davis (63, 801, 10).

In this year’s opener, Smith watched Shaun Hill lead the offense on an 80-yard, game-winning touchdown drive midway through the fourth quarter of an upset win in Arizona. Frank Gore had just 30 yards on 22 carries, but his three-yard score with 7:26 remaining beat the Cardinals, 20-16. San Francisco’s defense came up big, limiting the hosts to four third-down conversions in 14 tries and picking off Kurt Warner twice.

Warner, who suffered a concussion in a Week 11 win at St. Louis, missed one game as a result but will be ready to face the Niners. He returned to the lineup for last week’s 30-17 win over Minnesota, throwing for 285 yards and three touchdowns.

PREDICTION: The Niners wouldn’t mind seeing Warner miss the game, as their defense ranks 28th against the pass and fifth against the run, so the outcome is likely to be determined by the Cardinals quarterback and not Smith. ARIZONA 24, SAN FRANCISCO 16

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