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Steelers vs. Bucs Preview, Bookies not expecting many points
2010-09-24

Two unlikely unbeatens meet up in Tampa Bay on Sunday; the winner leaves with a 3-0 record. The Steelers vs. Buccaneers pointspread is currently Pittsburgh -2.5 at Sportsbook.com.

Despite their 2-0 start which includes two outright underdog victories, the Steelers have yet to score an offensive touchdown in regulation. But their opportunistic defense has already forced eight turnovers, including seven in last week’s win at Tennessee. Tampa Bay has used a similar aggressive defense to force six turnovers and hold its opponents to 21 total points in two wins over Cleveland and Carolina. Thanks to these two swarming defenses, the Steelers vs. Bucs over/under is at an extremely low 33 points.

With Ben Roethlisberger still suspended and an injury to Dennis Dixon, Charlie Batch got plenty of PT last Sunday. Batch is 3-1 SU and ATS in four career starts for Pittsburgh, but he had a dismal performance last week (5-for-11 for 25 yards with two fumbles). The Steelers will once again rely on the legs of Rashard Mendenhall to move the football. Mendenhall rumbled for 120 yards Week 1 against Atlanta, but was held to 69 yards on 23 carries at Tennessee. WR Hines Ward has been hobbled by a calf injury and only had one catch against the Titans, but he is expected to play this Sunday.

Tampa Bay ranks 24th in the NFL with 280.5 YPG, and the Bucs offense will be less than 100 percent due to some key injuries. RB Cadillac Williams is nursing a hamstring injury, backup RB Kareem Huggins missed last week’s game due to a groin injury and TE Kellen Winslow has missed practice time this week because of a knee injury. All three are expected to play, but that may not be enough for QB Josh Freeman to gain yardage against a stellar Pittsburgh defense that has allowed just 266.5 YPG and 20 total points this year.

These teams have met just three times in the past 10 years (2001, 2002, 2006) but all three have been similar results with the Steelers going 3-0 SU, ATS and UNDER. However, this betting trend shows that Pittsburgh’s turnover luck is not likely to hold up, making Tampa Bay the pick for Sunday:

Play Against - Favorites (PITTSBURGH) - after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers. (103-59 since 1983.) (63.6%, +38.1 units. Rating = 2*).

Check Sportsbook.com’s betting guides for more betting tips on this weekend’s football betting board.

After crunching some more stats, it appears that the ‘under’ is also a good bet:

TAMPA BAY is 48-23 UNDER (+22.7 Units) after a win by 10 or more points since 1992. (Rating = 2*).

To bet on the Steelers vs. Bucs pointspread or ‘total’, head over to Sportsbook.com now. Also be sure to make your selections for this weekend’s $100,000 Perfect Parlay promotion.

NFL: MINNESOTA at ARIZONA (8:15 PM ET, NBC)
2009-12-04

Minnesota isn’t one of the NFL unbeaten teams after 11 games, but it very well could be the league’s best team. After a dominant 3-game homestand, the 10-1 Vikings will hit the road for a trip to Arizona. They are a field goal favorite and the chances of winning hinge much on the status of Cardinals’ QB Kurt Warner, who missed last game with concussion symptoms. He was listed as probable at last check and could make Arizona a worthy home dog selection at Sportsbook.com.

The Cardinals come off a heartbreaking last-second loss to the Titans, but still remain in control of the NFC West Division at 7-4. Minnesota doesn’t figure to be a good matchup for any team right now, but in terms of trends, the Cardinals are 12-1 ATS vs. teams averaging >=7 yards per pass attempt, and 13-5 ATS against teams with a winning record under Ken Whisenhunt. However, the Vikings have taken seven of the L8 head-to-head matchups outright and are 6-2 ATS in that span. They are 4-1 SU & ATS in road games in ’09, winning by 11.6 PPG.

The switch from a late afternoon start to Sunday night shows the importance this game has as a preview to a possible playoff matchup down the road. Minnesota has utilized its final piece of the puzzle—Brett Favre—to post an impressive 10-1 record, while Arizona has overcome the moniker of a “one-hit wonder” to stay atop the NFC West and get back to the postseason.

The two teams met in the desert late last season, a game in which the Vikings dominated in a 35-14 stomping of the then-sagging Cardinals. It was a game that saw the victors score 21 points in the first quarter alone as well as then-starter Tarvaris Jackson tossing four touchdown passes. Arizona also had few answers for Adrian Peterson’s 165 rushing yards, while the Minnesota stop unit held superstar wideout Larry Fitzgerald to only five catches for 52 yards.

Like 2008, the Cardinals have dabbled with bouts of inconsistency, especially at home, but head coach Ken Whisenhunt has kept the team on track when things look like they could derail.

Quarterback Kurt Warner (concussion) sat out last week’s tough 20-17 loss at Tennessee, and Arizona is going to need Warner to stay healthy to go anywhere in January, especially since backup Matt Leinart has struggled. The problem for the Cardinals has been their play at home, where three losses were accumulated in the first half of the season.

Aside from the hiccup in Pittsburgh, the Vikings have steamrolled every foe that has come their way and Favre’s ability to enhance the passing game has made head coach Brad Childress’ team awfully tough to stop. The savvy veteran has made the likes of Sidney Rice, Bernard Berrian and Visanthe Shiancoe look like All-Pros, while rookie Percy Harvin added another killer dimension on third downs as well as the return game.
Defensively, the matchup between the Arizona air attack and Minnesota’s stellar pass defense should be a sight to behold. The Vikings can get to the passer with Jared Allen and Kevin Williams, meaning Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin must get open in a hurry. Luckily, Childress will have the services of Antoine Winfield in the secondary for the first time in five games. This is vital since the Cardinals also like to use wideout Steve Breaston.

PREDICTION: It will interesting to see if Arizona can shake off its home woes for a worthy opponent like Minnesota, which came in here last year and simply dominated from the opening kick. It’ll be closer this time, but the Vikings still boast too much talent. MINNESOTA 30, ARIZONA 24

Week 3 is view into start of NFL regular season
2009-08-31

This is the week most NFL coaches enjoy in August, having preparation that is most similar to what the regular season will be like in a couple of weeks. For the most part, the starters will play in the third quarter and the intensity level is relatively high for football played this month, with jobs on the line at various positions and teams wanting to make a good showing. Week 3 starts with three contests, all with their own unique flavor. Be sure to check the latest info for these contests by visiting the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, and TEAM STATISTICS pages.

Jacksonville at Philadelphia

If this was a TMZ.com piece, Michael Vick would be splashed all over and quotes and pictures would be seen. However this isn’t TMZ, this is about sports betting and what could lie ahead for a pair of teams without a preseason victory. Teams that don’t win a game in the preseason have averaged 7.3 wins a year once the real season begins since 1997, which is well below the expectations for both these clubs. Even worse, only one of the last 11 teams that were 0 for the preseason has made the playoffs. (Thanks, Mr. East)

Jacksonville has lost there two games by a total four points and could just as easily be 2-0, be it for a bit more offensive execution. Quarterback David Garrard has looked sharp and receiver Troy Williamson has been exceptional opposite of Torry Holt as the Jaguars new receivers’ core. The Jacksonville running game needs to find another gear after producing 127 yards the first two games. The Jags head to Philly as 7.5-point underdogs according to Bookmaker.com and they are 12-2 ATS in road games in the last two weeks of the preseason.

Coach Andy Reid stated Donovan McNabb will play the first three quarters and Kevin Kolb the final 15 minutes, but Mr. Vick will see time with the starters. The impression one has is Reid wants to start having upcoming regular season opponents start game-planning for the Eagles newest weapon. Of greatest concern to Philadelphia is the projected offense line starters have not played one down together and they are unlikely too this week either. Philly is only 2-7 ATS in third game of preseason.

Miami at Tampa Bay

This Fox nationally televised contest will have a Florida flavor with the Dolphins at Tampa Bay. Miami has looked impressive in first starts and though Chad Pennington is the clear starter at quarterback, back-up Chad Henne is looking like the future of Fins football. He’s been confident and a real leader and his passes have more zip on them, something not seen since the guy doing the Nutri-System commercials was wearing a Miami helmet. The Dolphins have run the ball effectively (129.5 yards per game) and the defensive line has contained opponents rushing attack. Curious to see if Tampa Bay goes after Dolphins safeties who are vulnerable to the pass. The Fish are 2.5-point underdogs and are 23-15-2 ATS in this spot.

Tampa Bay has split a pair of contests, winning as underdog last week against Jacksonville and is 7-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3. New head coach Raheem Morris has not named a starting quarterback yet, with the front office putting out feelers to find out what Luke McCown or Byron Leftwich could bring back in trade. Both have obvious limitations and top pick Josh Freeman isn’t ready. Indecision is not good and the Bucs are 1-7 ATS after a win by three or less points.

St. Louis at Cincinnati

Whatever appeal this game has is lessened by the fact both starting quarterbacks might not see any action. Carson Palmer has an ankle issue and Marc Bulger a finger problem. That means a heavy dose J.T. O'Sullivan for Cincinnati and St. Louis counters with Kyle Boller.

The Bengals first unit has moved the ball no matter who has played quarterback and is averaging 6.4 yards per play. It has been breakdowns at the wrong times that have stalled drives and left them without any points. Expect this to be an area coach Marvin Lewis wants more production from, for a squad that is 1-7 ATS in Week 3.

The Rams are 2.5-point underdogs and have a lot to shore up before regular season begins. The entire defense has made multiple miscues in understanding new coach Steve Spagnuolo’s defense. He’s been preaching "Get low and stick 'em" tackling, however too many defenders have fallen back to old ways and it will just take time. St. Louis is a sickly 1-9 ATS off a home loss.

NFL: Cleveland at Philadelphia (8:35 PM ET, ESPN)
2008-12-15

Perhaps it was the Thanksgiving meal, but whatever the case, the holiday has rallied the Eagles, who have come up with two huge wins over NFC divisional leaders since to climb back into the playoff hunt. Now to see if they can carry the momentum into a game they should win handily, on MNF at home vs. 4-9 Cleveland. The Eagles are backed by nearly 80% of public bettors at Sportsbook.com, despite a hefty chalk line.

Philly is a 14-point favorite and comes in with a 4-6 ATS mark as double-digit chalk under HC Andy Reid. They are 12-6 ATS on Monday night in his tenure. The Browns are 6-1 as a road dog of more than a TD under Romeo Crennel and 16-8 ATS coming off an ATS loss. The biggest hurdle Philly may have to overcome here is look ahead, as it closes the season with games at Washington then vs. Dallas, and at 7-5-1, may need to win out to reach the postseason.

Defensive coordinator Jim Johnson loves to dial up blitzes from every angle, and rusty Browns’ QB Ken Dorsey will find himself unprepared for the rush of Eagles. Jamal Lewis is averaging a mere 3.53 yards per carry, and the world should be happy Braylon Edwards is trying to catch footballs and not babies from a burning building. He’s dropped nearly half of the attempts thrown his way and has just 45 receptions.

The explosion has been missing from the Cleveland offense (21 points in the last three games), save for Brady Quinn’s first two NFL starts, and expecting it to return in Philadelphia with a third-string quarterback is a longshot.

Donovan McNabb’s bounced back since his benching in Baltimore, throwing for 451 yards and five touchdowns in two games, but more importantly not a single interception. The real trigger to the offense, however, isn’t McNabb but Brian Westbrook, and he has 333 total yards and six scores of his own since the debacle in Baltimore.

The Browns defense, led by D’Qwell Jackson’s 130 tackles, has limited the high-powered Texans, Colts and Titans to just 54 combined points and lost to them all. The defeats are more of a direct reflection of the offense’s struggles under Derek Anderson and Dorsey, than any shortcoming on defense.

PREDICTION: Looking to play the money line? Then the Eagles are one of the few no-brainers in Week 15. If Philadelphia is going to cover the hefty price, it’ll be due to Dorsey’s inexperience, not the Browns’ defense. PHILADELPHIA 23, CLEVELAND 7

NFL: Pittsburgh at Jacksonville (8:15 PM ET, NBC)
2008-10-03

Though only by a combined five points, the Jaguars have put together season saving back-to-back wins to even their record at 2-2. They’ll look to go above .500 with what would be a key win over a fellow AFC playoff contender when they host Pittsburgh on NBC’s Football night in America feature. Jacksonville is a 4-point favorite at last check.

These teams are well-familiar with one another, having last met in the wildcard round of last year’s playoffs. Jacksonville won that game in Pittsburgh 31-29, its fourth straight win over the Steelers. In fact, HC Jack Del Rio’s team owns a significant edge in this head-to-head series, going 7-2 ATS in the L9. The advantage is even bigger in Jacksonville, with the Jaguars 7-3 SU & 9-1 ATS at home. Pittsburgh comes off the Monday night game, hoping to improve on a 3-7-1 ATS record heading into its bye week.

The Steelers, who also fell to the Jags a month before the playoffs, were without leading rusher Willie Parker for the wild-card game and will be again after he sat out Monday night against Baltimore with a sprained knee. Without Parker, Pittsburgh ran for only 43 yards on 26 carries in the playoff loss. He had 100 yards on only 14 carries in the 29-22
regular-season setback.

Parker led all rushers in 2007 with seven 100-yard games, and he came out of the gate this season by topping the century mark against both Houston (138 yards, three touchdowns) and Cleveland (105 yards). In a Week 3 loss in Philadelphia, he was held to 20 yards on 13 carries. Making matters worse for Pittsburgh, rookie Rashard Mendenhall was lost for the season in the Monday night win versus Baltimore.

Without much of a running attack, the burden falls to Ben Roethlisberger to play an exceptional game. Of course he's capable if healthy. He suffered a sore wrist in the loss to the Eagles. Who wouldn't after getting sacked nine times? Big Ben must seek Hines Ward and Heath Miller underneath and take a few shots with Santonio Holmes deep outside the numbers.

Pittsburgh's defense had trouble with Jacksonville's ground attack in the regular-season meeting a year ago but shut it down in the playoffs. The Jags ran 44 times and averaged over five yards a carry in the December game. When Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew are motoring, it creates options for David Garrard, who is off to a mediocre start in the passing game with a 2-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

PREDICTION
It was uncharacteristic of both defenses to have these teams combine for 111 points against each other a year ago. Four of the previous six meetings saw fewer than 35 points scored, and that's what can be expected again. At home, and with an extra day of rest, the Jaguars get a slight nod. JACKSONVILLE 19, PITTSBURGH 13

NFL - Washington at Minnesota (8:15 PM ET – NBC)
2007-12-21

The battle between Washington and Minnesota has become a key one in the race for the final wildcard spot in the NFC, so much so that it has been moved to the NBC Sunday night feature. The Vikings and Redskins are the two frontrunners out of a handful of teams still vying for the final playoff position. Minnesota has home field edge here but will be off a short week having played Monday vs. Chicago. The Redskins are making their second straight appearance on SNF and have won two games in a row over fellow NFC contenders to get back in the hunt. Both teams face difficult season finales, with Minnesota traveling to Denver, and Washington hosting Dallas, so this becomes a must-win for both. The Redskins are on a run of 27-12 ATS as a road dog of 3.5-9.5 points.
The Redskins have suffered a traumatic fall from grace and seem unable to regain form. QB Jason Campbell is talented but has much to learn, but he is not alone failing the team at the worst possible time. The receiving corps has been pedestrian for much of the campaign while the defense struggles to keep the opposition from passing all over the field. To top things off, the coaching has, at times, failed to provide the leadership needed to make it all work.

No team has surprised in recent week like the Minnesota Vikings. While the offense, namely the prodigious rise of RB Adrian Peterson, hordes the headlines, the defense has worked as the force of reckoning, keeping scores in recent games as low as possible while all but eliminating the oncoming rushing offense any team may bring. The indecision at QB has us all guessing and could provide a source of experimentation that has proven concerning. However, the Vikes could be in position to enjoy a breakout campaign.

Keys to the Game
Minnesota’s hot play has earned another prime-time showcase as they have rebounded from a 3-6 start. Coach Brad Childress has used a clichéd philosophy of playing one game at a time, using what some consider old school football, yet it still works even today: Run the ball, stop the run. Minnesota is 1st in the league in both categories. With Washington’s oft stagnant offense, Minnesota could improve to 12-2 ATS when they allow 15 to 21 points. Veteran backup Todd Collins will be making his second straight start and is playing in Al Saunders offense. The Redskins are 8-1-1 ATS in division sandwich games.

Trends
~ Washington is 11-27 ATS in road games when they allow 150 or more rushing yards.
~ Minnesota is 11-2 ATS vs. passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 61% or worse over the last three seasons.

StatFox Edge – Redskins cover

Saturday – Phoenix at Orlando
2007-11-09

Other than Miami, hard to think of two better vacations spots during the NBA season. Leandro Barbosa, Raja Bell and Grant Hill are all so out of tune shooting the ball, the awful clanking sounds like Motorhead doing acoustic set. The Suns needs to have the league’s top offense score to make up for middling defense.

Orlando’s started fast again with 4-1 SU and ATS record. (Pending Knicks game) Why the Magic believed they could count on injury-plagued Tony Battie is simply beyond comprehension. Maybe this franchise always likes to have some star player injured as convenient excuse. (Insert Grant Hill) My favorite name in the NBA Hedo Turkoglu, is off to a great start this season as the team's third offensive option behind Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis.

Backing the Magic, since the Suns were just 1-4 ATS last season on the last game of road trip that was three or more games.